Voices [0:01]

A foolish consistency, is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines.

Voices [0:10]

If a man does not keep pace with his companions. Perhaps it is because he hears a different drummer, A different drummer.

Mostly Mary [0:19]

And now, coming to you from dead center on your dial, welcome to Risk Parity Radio, where we explore alternatives and asset allocations for the do-it-yourself investor, Broadcasting to you now from the comfort of his easy chair. Here is your host, Frank Vasquez.

Mostly Uncle Frank [0:37]

Thank you, Mary, and welcome to Risk Parity Radio. If you have just stumbled in here, you will find that this podcast is kind of like a dive bar of personal finance and do-it-yourself investing.

Voices [0:52]

Expect the unexpected.

Mostly Uncle Frank [0:55]

It's a relatively small place. It's just me and Mary in here and we only have a few mismatched bar stools and some easy chairs. We have no sponsors, we have no guests and we have no expansion plans.

Voices [1:11]

I don't think I'd like another job.

Mostly Uncle Frank [1:13]

What we do have is a little free library of updated and unconflicted information for do-it-yourself investors.

Voices [1:23]

Now who's up for a trip to the library?

Mostly Uncle Frank [1:26]

tomorrow. So please enjoy our mostly cold beer served in cans and our coffee served in old chipped and cracked mugs, along with what our little free library has to offer. Welcome of the eight sample portfolios you can find at wwwriskparityradiocom on the portfolios page.

Voices [2:08]

Boring.

Mostly Uncle Frank [2:11]

But before I put you to sleep with that, we do have some much more entertaining features, inconceivable. First, we need to break some rules here.

Voices [2:21]

But, captain, I can't avenge my partner's death with this pea shooter. I don't want to hear it, mcbain.

Voices [2:26]

That cannon of yours is against regulations. In this department we go by the book.

Mostly Uncle Frank [2:33]

By book, because you know rules are made to be broken. It's something that I enjoy, and the rule we are breaking today is our rule of not having any guests on this podcast. Surely you can't be serious.

Voices [2:53]

I am serious and don't call me Shirley.

Mostly Uncle Frank [2:56]

Because we have not one, but two guests today, and it's Dennis and Ben from the Father McKenna Center to talk about their work there and our recent Top of the T-Shirt fundraising campaign, the matching campaign that you've all come to know and love over these past two months. So we'll give that a listen it's less than 10 minutes long and then I'll come back with some additional thoughts and, of course, your emails, and so, without further ado, alright, I'm here with Dennis D and Ben Hoffschneider down in the basement of the St Aloysius Church, broadcasting from the Father McKenna Center, and we just wanted to talk about our recent campaign. But I wanted to introduce our characters, or our cast here. Dennis, why don't you go first and tell us a little bit about how you came to be the director of the Father McKenna Center?

Voices [3:49]

Sure, Frank, Great to see you. My name is Dennis D. I first came into the center in late August of 2014. I arrived after having taken a 24-hour bus from St Petersburg, Florida. Arrived in Washington DC. I was homeless at the time. I entered the center the morning of August 28th, but who's counting. I proceeded to come to the center and receive services for approximately three months and then, due to a staff member leaving, I was offered an opportunity to work here. Due to a staff member leaving, I was offered an opportunity to work here. I worked here approximately 21 months, at which time I relocated to Chicago, Illinois, where I spent a little over seven years working as an addictions counselor at an organization called Haymarket Center, which does a lot of great work in Chicago.

Voices [4:42]

Now, I guess it would be about 20 months ago I get an email from the board of directors, chairman of the board, Barbara Patoka, asking if I had interest in returning to the center in the capacity as executive director. I was, you know, flattered, quickly accepted, before she could change her mind, and I've been here working at the center since the beginning of January 2024 and it's been. You know every, every bit that I expected incredibly rewarding experience, some challenges, but we're kind of feels like we're we're overcoming those. It's been a pleasure to work with Frank, met at first last January and everything you know is proceeding really well. We're really really grateful for Risk Parity Radio's support. We couldn't do it without you.

Mostly Uncle Frank [5:32]

Ben, tell us about yourself.

Voices [5:35]

So my name is Ben Hoffschneider. My first experience at the McKenna Center was in the fall of 2012, where I came onto the center grounds onto Gonzaga High School's campus as a freshman at Gonzaga. I volunteered at the center throughout my time as a student and then, after I graduated from Gonzaga in 2016, I remained involved. I worked here, had an internship type thing for about a month and a half and later 2016. And then in 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, I came back and worked as a monitor for the men that were staying in the shelter and then supported our day program and food pantry operations. I worked in government affairs for a little while and then came back in January 2024, joined the center staff in a development capacity part-time. I was elevated to full-time in April of 2024 as sort of supporting the development operations in the development office and then took over the office in February of this year and now sort of spearhead alongside Dennis our development and fundraising work.

Mostly Uncle Frank [6:46]

So we're here today to talk about the Top of the T-Shirt campaign, which we've just kind of concluded in a way at the end of July. Ben, why don't you tell us sort of what was it like seeing these donations come in? Because I know you're actually the person that counts the money.

Voices [7:03]

Yeah. So I think for our whole team, I think for myself and for Dennis and for the other member of our development team, abby. I think similarly to you, frank. We sort of came into this campaign with a bit of trepidation. The center as a whole has not run many matching gift campaigns before. We didn't know what the response would be, sort of how long it would take before gifts would start trickling in, and I think the easiest word I can use to describe how we feel is just overwhelmed. The support and sort of love and gratitude that we felt from the community, from your community, has just been overwhelming and it's been incredible to see the sort of force multiplier effect of the matching campaign and our ability to raise at this point more than $60,000 for the McKenna Center $60,000.

Mostly Uncle Frank [7:49]

That's amazing Out of an initial matching donation from our listener Matthew63, who put up $15,000. I personally thought it would take at least two months to manage to raise about that, but what is the grand total?

Voices [8:04]

Ben. So our final number as of July 31st is $60,969.83. Every penny matters.

Mostly Uncle Frank [8:15]

Which I attribute that to our creative donors who donated based on the golden ratio and the Fibonacci sequence, which we all appreciate. Dennis, can you tell us what this kind of means to the center?

Voices [8:31]

I mean this is incredible support. I mean not just the top of the T-shirt has been accomplished, but the Risk Parity Radio campaign is now our leading donor for this fiscal year, and so you think about how amazing that is. Roughly 4% of our budget came in through this campaign Incredible. If I could share an anecdote that still makes me smile, this might have been six weeks ago. Six weeks ago, frank contacted me and said that he had received an email from a listener indicating that to look out for a $10,000 gift. And I said wow. And Frank said yeah, I don't know if the guy's yanking my chain, but look out for it. And the next morning, there it was, it came through. And so amazing. There it was, it came through, and so amazing. The whole matching program has just been. Astonishing is probably the best word.

Voices [9:31]

And we're really incredibly blessed and you know I certainly commit as the executive director to be, you know, prudent and judicious with the money that's been provided. You know we really appreciate the trust and support that you've provided the center.

Voices [9:46]

I think also it's remarkable that so in this total of just over $60,000 are 52 individual gifts, and so that's 52 listeners, 52 donors that, from the addresses that we see when they fill out the forms, really come from all over the country, sort of pitching in to help support the work that we do here at the center and sort of doing what we can to support and elevate the lives of men that are struggling with homelessness and then families experiencing food insecurity as well.

Mostly Uncle Frank [10:15]

All right. Well, some of my listeners actually do want to get a hold of these t-shirts when they come out. Do you have any idea when we might start seeing some of those?

Voices [10:24]

Yes, when they come out. Do you have any idea when we might start seeing some of those? Yeah, so the Walk for McKenna registration is currently up and running on our website, and the surefire way to get your hands on a t-shirt is to register. I know that some of your listeners might be from sort of out of town, and so if they register and then reach out to us, we're happy to coordinate to make sure that we can get those shirts into their hands. But they're going to be entering production soon with the RPR logo right at the top, and we should be getting our hands on them in mid-September and at that point we can send them out where they're needed. But we hope that the supporters, especially any that are local, are able to come and join us in person on the morning of Saturday, september 27th for the walk.

Voices [11:08]

If I could maybe add one additional point, frank, the fact that we've now broadened our network to go nationwide, as we have through this program. It's inspired us to do that much better of a job being transparent in terms of the services we offer on social media, both Instagram and Facebook. And so please, if you haven't, try to keep up with us or take a look at our offering and programming that we're putting on Facebook and Instagram, because our desire is to be again be transparent with what we offer so that you can see what your money is doing, and I think, frank, you made it clear early on that. Encourage us to do that, and we've done so, and we try to do a good job, with two or three posts a week showing the kind of work that gets done here.

Mostly Uncle Frank [11:52]

Well, I guarantee it'll probably be one of the most inspiring things you see in your Instagram or Facebook feed these days, given everything else that's out there. But I want to thank you both for participating in this interview process, because I know you're not podcasters by training Our listeners really, really have enjoyed participating in this and we hope to continue on supporting the Father McKenna Center.

Voices [12:18]

Well, I think we're both happy to do it. I'm excited to be, I believe, or for us to be, I believe the first ever guests on the Risk Parity Radio podcast.

Mostly Uncle Frank [12:28]

This is true. We made an exception. We made an exception.

Voices [12:31]

Other than family members.

Mostly Uncle Frank [12:36]

Other than family members. All right, well, thank you very much.

Voices [12:41]

Thank you.

Mostly Uncle Frank [12:43]

Well, I hope you enjoyed that because I enjoyed meeting with dennis and ben and making our little interview segment. Just one little correction or augmentation ben mentioned 52 donors, but there's actually a whole lot more because he was not counting all of the patrons on patreon and so I think it's closer to 100 donors who participated in the Top of the T-shirt campaign. When I was down there in the basement with them, we were sitting around this little table in Dennis's office doing this interview and, as you can imagine, his office is a jumble of materials because of all the different jobs he actually has there. But one of the things sitting there on his table was a copy of Theodore Roosevelt's poem the man in the Arena. Now, many of you are probably familiar with that. I'll just give you a little excerpt from it.

Voices [13:39]

read by John F Kennedy, he said Theodore Roosevelt once said the credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions and spends himself in a worthy cause, who, at best, if he wins, knows the thrills of high achievement and if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat victory nor defeat.

Mostly Uncle Frank [14:33]

Now I've noticed that this poem has become very popular amongst tech bros and finance bros, who will often get a designer version of it and have it framed and put it up, say, on the wall behind them for their YouTube videos etc. So on and so forth. But I often think they're kind of missing the point because you're not in the arena. If you're sitting behind screens or behind a microphone or in front of a camera, it's not the arena we're talking about here. Dennis and Ben and Abby and all the other people who work at the Father McKenna Center and similar places they are the ones that are in the arena dealing with people's day-to-day problems with limited resources. So I thought it was fitting that Dennis's copy of the poem was not framed, was not fancy. In fact it looked like it had just been printed out of a printer a long time ago and was well worn, even though is now behind a plastic protector it would not be made out of gold.

Voices [15:44]

That's the cup of a carpenter.

Mostly Uncle Frank [16:21]

There's only one way to find out. You have chosen wisely, because he's been in the arena a long time with that piece of paper and continues to work in that arena with his colleagues there and all the volunteers and the clients they serve, and it's really been humbling and gratifying to see and experience how many of you listeners have chosen to jump in that arena with them, with Matthew 63 leading the charge, of course, putting up that first $15,000 as matching funds.

Voices [16:46]

It's all the same to you.

Mostly Uncle Frank [16:50]

I'll drive that tanker and inviting you all to come in.

Voices [16:57]

Let's do it. Let's do it.

Mostly Uncle Frank [17:04]

You should all be pleased, proud and happy to have participated in this experience, Because I certainly am.

Voices [17:11]

This story shall the good man teach his son From this day to the ending of the world. But we in it shall be remembered. We few, we happy few. We band of brothers. For he today that sheds his blood with me shall be my brother. Be he ne'er so vile.

Voices [17:38]

This day shall gentle his condition and gentlemen in England, now abed shall think themselves accursed they were not here and hold their manhoods cheap whilst any speaks.

Voices [17:52]

that thought with us upon St Presbyterian Day.

Mostly Uncle Frank [18:02]

And although I've taken my turn in various arenas from time to time, I was very happy to be able to play Mickey to your Rockies in this circumstance.

Voices [18:13]

You know, kid, I know how you feel about this fight that's coming up, Because I was young once too. And I'll tell you something With you, kid boy, I got a reason to go on, and I'm going to go on and I'm going to stay alive and I will watch you make good and I'll never leave you. And I'll never leave you until that happens, because when I leave you, you'll not only know how to fight, you'll be able to take care of yourself outside the ring too. Is that okay?

Mostly Uncle Frank [18:47]

It's okay.

Voices [18:54]

Okay, thank you so much again for taking part in it, but now let's move along to our next segment, which, of course, is your emails.

Mostly Uncle Frank [19:05]

And so, without further ado, here I go once again with the email.

Voices [19:11]

And first off, first off, an email from Jamie.

Mostly Mary [19:21]

And Jamie writes, reduce risk, based on the idea that recessions usually push oil prices down. I know you've experimented with VXX before, but found it tough to get past the fund's drag. I took it a step further and tested using both VXX and SCO as a bond replacement. It's been pretty interesting. I could only backtest to 2006 using USO as a crude oil proxy and I'm sure this wouldn't have held up in the 70s or 80s, but the results are worth a look. Benchmarking against Golden Butterfly and Permanent Portfolio, it showed much better returns with only slightly higher volatility. Here's the test I ran on Testfolio, curious to hear your thoughts. Is it time to reconsider adding VXX and SCO into the mix? Ps. If the link doesn't work, let me know. Testfolio has been a little glitchy for me. Thanks, jamie.

Voices [20:15]

Well, I'm waiting for you, Jimmy boy.

Mostly Uncle Frank [20:19]

Well, my first thought has to do with benchmarking, because your portfolio is about 70% in stocks and so you would want to compare that to other portfolios that have about the same allocation to stocks.

Mostly Uncle Frank [20:34]

And that's just the macro allocation principle that those portfolios are likely to have similar performance characteristics because they have similar risk profiles, whereas something like a golden butterfly or permanent portfolio is a much more conservative allocation and you would not expect it to have the same kind of overall returns as a portfolio with a much higher allocation to stocks.

Mostly Uncle Frank [20:58]

But when you compare what you've done to a 70-30 portfolio, yes, it looks really good.

Mostly Uncle Frank [21:03]

I think you have hit on the limitation, however.

Mostly Uncle Frank [21:05]

I think you have hit on the limitation, however, which is, since you're only going back to 2006, that is really not a very good data set to be relying on for any kind of forecasting in the future, because you only have that basically, one bad crash at the beginning of the period and then after that, anything with a lot of stocks, and particularly a lot of growth stocks and things like QQQ, is going to just outperform everything else. But you might use this as some kind of conservative accumulation portfolio and compare it to other kinds of accumulation portfolios. As you've mentioned, I've experimented with allocations to the VIX in the past, either through VXX or other methods, and I haven't found anything that really seems to be a good idea long term, because it does have a negative expectation for the most part. Most of these VIX-related funds have negative expectations, so I would think you would need some kind of trading strategy to go with something like that. Otherwise it's just going to end up being a drag on the portfolio overall, and anything involving crude oil is going to be highly unpredictable.

Mostly Mary [22:19]

Oh, what it's gone, it's all gone.

Mostly Uncle Frank [22:22]

So you would generally only want to allocate to something like that in conjunction with some kind of overall commodities allocation or managed futures strategy. That being said, what you've done works really, really well for the period that it works for, and I'll link to it in the show notes, and while I am not inclined to do anything in particular with it, that doesn't mean other listeners might not want to check it out and see what they think about it.

Voices [22:54]

In any event, I applaud your creativity and your curiosity and thank you for your email. Many men have tried. They tried and failed, they tried and died second off.

Mostly Uncle Frank [23:06]

Second off we have an email from Camille.

Voices [23:09]

For the next 10 hours I'm going to try to learn Camille in three steps.

Mostly Mary [23:13]

And Camille writes Hi, frank, it's Camille. I wrote in on your episode 376. I am trying to get my portfolio in order for early retirement, but I am still stuck on figuring out where to put my treasury bonds. I currently do not own any. I understand that the best place to put them is in my retirement accounts, 403b. My problem is that my employer does not offer any treasury bond funds for my 403b. I am hoping to quit my job in the next one to two years and then I could roll my 403b into an IRA and invest in treasury bonds. But up until that point, what should I have my 403b invested in? Currently it's 90% stocks, 10% bonds. Once I reach my FI number, I would have about $300,000 in my 403b which, if invested in long-term treasury bonds, would reach the golden ratio portfolio requirement for treasury bonds In my entire portfolio. I am pretty exposed to risk right now as I have about 12% in bonds, 10% in gold and alternatives, 70% in stocks, 8% in cash. Should I be holding treasury bonds in my brokerage portfolio till I reach financial independence? I am scared I will be caught with my pants down. That's not an improvement.

Mostly Mary [24:30]

On another note, I was hoping you could consult your crystal ball and let me know your thoughts on what would happen to US treasury bonds if the US is no longer the world's reserve currency. A crystal ball can help you. It can guide you. What are your thoughts to alternatives to long-term US Treasury bonds? I have listened to many of your podcasts and I'm guessing there is not an alternative. But maybe things change as the world changes. Thanks for all you do, camille. The crystal ball is a conscious energy.

Mostly Uncle Frank [25:01]

All right, you got two questions here essentially. First, about this 403B. Now, although you probably don't have specific dedicated treasury bonds in that 403b, I would bet you have something that is akin to a total bond fund, either a Vanguard-like product, or maybe it's a T Rowe price, maybe it's a PIMCO thing. It probably has intermediate duration and you can check these things out by putting it into the Morningstar analyzer and looking at the portfolio to see what's in it. But any of those would be a good parking place to move money into right now until you can actually roll out the 403b into an IRA and then buy the bond funds you actually want.

Mostly Uncle Frank [25:48]

While it's not ideal for the long term, for the short term, if you're just trying to take risk off the table, any broad-based intermediate bond fund is going to be good enough for that. For the short term, until you can buy exactly what you want, and in most circumstances that is going to be a better solution than holding excessive amounts of bonds in a taxable account, because you're just paying excess taxes on those things and since there isn't any tax implications to buying and selling things in retirement accounts, it'll be an easy switch if you will both right now to move into that bond allocation and then later on to move it to a different bond allocation when you get to actual retirement and can put it in an IRA, and then you will not get caught with your pants down, as you so eloquently put it. Now your second question is more esoteric and atmospheric actually. Now your second question is more esoteric and atmospheric actually. A really big one here, which is huge what would happen to US Treasury bonds if the US is no longer the world's reserve currency?

Voices [26:58]

Real wrath of God type stuff.

Mostly Uncle Frank [27:01]

I think the problem here is you are looking at the US dollar not being the world's reserve currency as a cause of something, when in reality that is going to be the effect of something. The way that, historically, the world's reserve currency has changed has been a diminution of one economy and society over time, while another one is rising and eventually takes its place, and usually this takes a number of decades. Going from the British pound as a world's reserve currency to the dollar took essentially the first half of the 20th century and involved a couple of wars and the Great Depression. So we would need to know what is the cause of the US dollar not being the world's reserve currency anymore. And you can imagine, maybe we have a war and US society breaks apart and so nobody wants to use a dollar anymore.

Voices [27:56]

Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies, rivers and seas boiling Forty years of darkness, earthquakes, volcanoes, the dead rising from the grave.

Mostly Uncle Frank [28:04]

You'd probably have bigger worries than whether to hold US Treasury bonds or not at that point in time. Want to go back to the Civil War, though? You can see that the end result of that was that the Confederate bonds were never paid and were completely defaulted upon and went to zero, whereas the Union bonds were paid in accordance with the 14th Amendment. But we can do another thought experiment if you like that. What if the cause of the US dollar not being the world's reserve currency was not some cataclysmic event or decline or something like that, but was just a decision that got made one day? Imagine if the US and the European Union got together and jointly decided we don't want the US dollar to be the world's reserve currency anymore. We don't want the US dollar to be the world's reserve currency anymore, we want it to be Euro, and we are just going to swap all of the Euro currency for the dollar and vice versa tomorrow and then go from there.

Voices [29:06]

Human sacrifice dogs and cats living together mass hysteria.

Mostly Uncle Frank [29:11]

Now you can think of a million different ways why that wouldn't work or doesn't make any sense, but you can also just look at the current state of things.

Mostly Uncle Frank [29:18]

So if you go to any other developing country, whether it's Japan or Germany or France or whatever, they have sovereign bonds that are trading every day and they have interest rates that are kind of similar to the dollar. So if we were to say, well, the dollar is going to be in their position and they're going to be in the dollar's position, you wouldn't think there'd be that much change in what goes on with the dollar and treasury bonds, because if there was going to be a big change, you'd have already seen that in all of these other developed countries currencies and bond markets that you're not seeing. So, since they are not blowing up or doing anything spectacularly strange, you wouldn't think it would have any effect or much of an effect on the US dollar and treasury bonds itself. Now, as it happens, the reality of the situation is more dollars in US debt are being used in the world than ever before, and that's been the case since the end of the Cold War and there is no heir apparent other currency on the rise.

Voices [30:21]

That is the straight stuff. Oh funk master.

Mostly Uncle Frank [30:25]

Because countries like China do not float their currency and they peg it to the dollar, so they can't be the world's reserve currency. The world's reserve currency has to float, so the upshot is I wouldn't be spending any time in this conundrum and wouldn't be making any decisions based on your thoughts about it.

Voices [30:44]

Forget about it.

Mostly Uncle Frank [30:45]

If you are going to try to predict the future, you should be trying to predict the cause of why the dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency and thinking about what that implication might have or might not have.

Mostly Mary [30:59]

I would place it over a candle and it's through the candle that you will see the images, into the crystal.

Mostly Uncle Frank [31:11]

And not just some kind of magical event where you wake up one day and the dollar's not the world's reserve currency.

Mostly Mary [31:18]

Now the crystal ball has been used since ancient times. It's used for scrying, healing and meditation.

Mostly Uncle Frank [31:27]

What you would actually do in that kind of circumstance is move a lot of your dollar-denominated bonds into whatever the bonds were of the new world reserve currency. But there doesn't seem to be any reason to be rushing into thinking about that or doing that, because there are plenty of other sovereign bonds in the world that are acceptable to many people and are traded every day. So that's the way I would think about that.

Voices [31:53]

That and a nickel. Get your hot cup a jack squat.

Mostly Uncle Frank [31:59]

Hopefully it helps you think about it if you really do want to think about it, but I would turn off whatever you're consuming, that's whinging about that, and get on with your life in other ways. Thank you for your questions and thank you for your email.

Voices [32:16]

I hope we were of some help to you.

Mostly Uncle Frank [32:18]

Yes, you were. Thanks, middle-aged man.

Voices [32:20]

My pleasure.

Voices [32:21]

Just quit looking at my gut, I'm working on it.

Voices [32:29]

Last off.

Mostly Uncle Frank [32:31]

Last off of an email from John. What are you serious?

Mostly Mary [32:36]

Well, yeah.

Mostly Uncle Frank [32:38]

John, you want to do that to the kid.

Mostly Mary [32:40]

And John writes Hi Frank and Mary. I've been binging your podcast for the last several weeks and love it. It feels like there are so many more people out there who have not discovered your podcast but could really use it.

Mostly Uncle Frank [32:52]

No more flying solo. You need somebody watching your back at all times.

Mostly Mary [32:58]

First a bit about me. I am 54, married, and my wife is 53 and semi-retired. She picks up consulting work from time to time but it does not amount to much income. I am planning on retiring in the next couple of months and looking for a way to give back with my time. I have always thought volunteering or working for a non-profit. I am planning on retiring in the next couple of months and looking for a way to give back with my time. I have always thought volunteering or working for a non-profit I am passionate about would be the route. This is still the plan and now I am getting serious about finding ways to do it.

Mostly Mary [33:24]

Our money situation we have a net worth of 30 plus times our expenses, so I am not concerned about having enough. We have held about two-thirds in 401k and one-third in after-tax brokerage. On to my question, I had a thought and I want help deciding if it is a good thought or a bad thought. After listening, absorbing and learning from Risk Parity Radio, I am ready to start trying some of what you teach. Currently we have most of our 401k funds and target date funds which I want to get out of after listening to episode 333. My plan is to move into something like the golden ratio portfolio.

Mostly Mary [33:59]

My question centers on how to transition. If I look at the different components, some have been on a run up, some down. Gold is way up and managed futures and long-term treasuries are down. If I had been holding these assets for the last few years, they would have given me several opportunities to rebalance. Since I am just getting in now, I feel like I can use that rebalancing thinking to my advantage. I am thinking of putting more weight in the assets that are down and less weight in the assets that are up, almost as though I rebalanced after the fact. Over time, I would move the weights of each asset class to their target weights through rebalancing. I want to know your thoughts about this methodology. I suspect you will say this is just a form of market timing, but I am interested in what you have to say.

Voices [34:45]

You are correct, sir. Yes.

Mostly Mary [34:48]

If this strategy does not make sense, is the best method to just rip the bandage off anytime and make the portfolio moves, especially in my 401k where there are no immediate tax implications. Thanks, John.

Mostly Uncle Frank [35:03]

Well, I think you're probably thinking about this a little too hard. You know, I got friends of mine who live and die by the actuarial tables and I say, hey, it's all one big crapshoot. Anywho, when you're doing a transition, if you don't feel comfortable doing it kind of all at once, all you really need to do is put that on some kind of a schedule. But which choice you make is kind of a coin flip, because there's no way of knowing whether making this transition now or in six months is going to be the better choice.

Voices [35:34]

We don't know. What do we know? You don't know, I don't know, nobody knows.

Mostly Uncle Frank [35:40]

Ultimately, you don't even really care about it, because what you care about is where you're going to be in 10 years. That's the time frame we're thinking about. So whether you do this transition quickly or not quickly is not something you can really make a meaningful decision about. Just get it done is the upshot of it is, Because the real danger is having a market crash while you're still in an accumulation portfolio. I always have to laugh about this sometimes when I hear people talk about why they should or should not own a particular asset based on recent performance. So I've heard recently things like well, I wouldn't want to buy any bonds now. Look how badly they've performed in the past few years. Okay, well, aren't you supposed to buy low and sell high? And if they're low now, shouldn't you be buying low?

Voices [36:33]

Buy low, sell high.

Mostly Uncle Frank [36:34]

Fear. That's the other guy's problem. And then often the same person out of the other side of their mouth will say something like well, I don't want to buy gold right now. It's had a big run-up. You can see that both of these are just lame excuses based on recent performance, not to do something, not to diversify, because people often the same people will not apply that reasoning to their holdings in stock index funds. The reasoning there will be well, I should always keep buying. They're going to go up into the right eventually, aren't they? Well, maybe, but eventually could be in 10 years hence.

Mostly Uncle Frank [37:12]

Meanwhile, things like gold also tend to go up and to the right over time, simply because the unit of account we use, the US dollar, is going to decay over time. And as long as the world is improving economically, the demand for gold is going to go up over time worldwide. So you can do this in any way that makes you feel comfortable. It's just get it done in some reasonable amount of time, whether that's a month or even a year or three. And obviously, if you have tax issues with selling things in taxable accounts, you do need to be mindful of that, so you're not incurring large tax bills in any one year. The simplest way to do it obviously is the one you mentioned as ripping the bandage off and just making the change when you've won the accumulation game and just getting it done, at least with a portion of your assets you plan to use as a retirement portfolio.

Mostly Uncle Frank [38:09]

Now, if you're still accumulating in this kind of portfolio, or using a portfolio like this as an intermediate accumulation portfolio which our adult children do, to save for the next car or house down payment or solar panels or whatever is on the horizon next in terms of a big amorphous expense sometime in the future, game morph expense sometime in the future, in those circumstances it is generally better to just add to whatever is low in the portfolio as you are putting more money into the portfolio, because that just minimizes all of your transactions and minimizes the need to sell things to rebalance and incur taxes on them. I think, all else being equal, anytime you can minimize the number of transactions you need to do in a portfolio or circumstance, the better off you're probably going to be. So I'm glad you're enjoying the show. Keep binging away. Binge, early binge.

Voices [39:08]

Often I always say you are talking about the nonsensical ravings of a lunatic mind.

Mostly Uncle Frank [39:16]

And hopefully that answer helps and thank you for your email.

Voices [39:22]

And now for something completely different.

Voices [39:26]

What is that? What is that? What is it? Oh no, not the bees, Not the bees.

Mostly Uncle Frank [39:34]

And the something completely different is our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews. Of the eight sample portfolios you can find at wwwriskpartyreviewcom on the portfolios page. And we did have a few bees this week, at least towards the end of the week, with respect to the stock market, although it really didn't affect our portfolios that much. Just looking at where these markets are this year so far the S&P 500, represented by VOO, is up 6.73% for the year so far. Nasdaq 100, represented by QQQ, is up 8.62% for the year so far. Small cap value, represented by the fund VIOV, is still the big loser this year. It is down 7.62% for the year so far. Small cap value, represented by the fund VIOV, is still the big loser this year. It is down 7.97% for the year so far, while gold continues to be the big winner.

Mostly Mary [40:24]

I love gold.

Mostly Uncle Frank [40:27]

Representative fund GLDM is up 27.83% for the year so far. Long-term treasury bonds, represented by the fund VGLT, are now up 3.64% for the year so far. This week was a good week for those. Reits, represented by the fund REET are up 3.31% for the year so far. Commodities represented by the fund PDBC are up 1.31% for the year so far. Preferred shares, represented by the fund PFFV are up 1.31% for the year so far. Preferred shares represented by the fund PFFV are up 1.86% for the year so far, and managed futures, represented by the fund DBMF, are back down. They are down 1.45% for the year so far. Moving to these sample portfolios, first ones of all seasons, this one is 30% in a total stock market fund VTI, 55% in intermediate and long-term treasury bonds and 15% in golden commodities. It's actually up 0.21% month to date. For the one day of the month we have so far, it's up 6.7% year-to-date and up 15.83% since inception in July 2020. We will be distributing $32 out of it. It'll come out of the accumulated cash. That's for August. It's at a 4% annualized rate. It'll be $251 year-to-date and $1,941 since inception in July 2020. All of these started with about $10,000 in them. Next one's, golden Butterfly. This one is 40% in stocks divided into a total stock market fund and a small cap value fund, 40% in treasury bonds divided into long and short and 20% in gold GLDM. It's up 0.09% for the month of August. So far. It's up 6.84% year-to-date and up 43.09% since inception in July 2020. For the month of August, we're distributing $46 out of it Comes out of accumulated cash. That's at a 5% annualized rate. It'll be $364 year-to-date in $2,665 since inception in July 2020. X1's a golden ratio. This one's 42% in stocks divided into a large cap growth fund and a small cap value fund, 26% in long-term treasury bonds, 16% in gold, 10% in managed futures and 6% in cash in a money market fund and 6% in cash in a money market fund. It's down 0.24% for August 1st month. To date. It's up 6.07% year to date and up 37.84% since inception, July 2020. For the month of August, we are distributing $45 out of it. It'll come out of the cash, as it always does with this portfolio. That's how we manage it. As it always does with this portfolio. That's how we manage it. That'll be $349 year-to-date and $2,611 since inception in July 2020. Next one's the risk parity ultimate. I'm not going to go through all 12 of these funds, but it's down 0.21% for the month of August. So far, it's up 5.45% year-to-date and up 25.85% since inception in July 2020. We'll be distributing $41 out of it from accumulated cash for the month of August. It's at a 5% annualized rate. It'll be $317 year-to-date and $2,767 since inception in July 2020.

Mostly Uncle Frank [43:53]

Now moving to these experimental portfolios that all involve leverage funds and lots of volatility. Don't try this at home. First one's the accelerated permanent portfolio. This one's 27.5% in a levered bond fund TMF, 25% in a levered stock fund UPRO, 25% in a preferred shares fund PFFV and 22.5% in gold GLDM. It is up 0.26% month-to-date. It's up 7.9% year-to-date and up 9.01% since inception, july 2020. We were distributing $39 out of it out of accumulated cash for the month of August. It's at a 6% annualized rate. It'll be $308 year-to-date and $2,938 since inception, july 2020.

Mostly Uncle Frank [44:44]

Next one's the aggressive 50-50. This is the most levered and least diversified of these portfolios. It's one-third in a levered stock fund UPRO, one-third in a levered bond fund TMF and the remaining third in Ballast in a preferred shares fund and an intermediate treasury bond fund. It's down 0.5% month-to-date. It's up 2.52% year-to-date and down 9.71% since inception in July 2020, continuing to be the worst performer. We'll be distributing $32 out of it from the levered stock fund, upro, for August. That's at a 6% annualized rate, be $256 year-to-date and $2,924 since inception, July 2020.

Mostly Uncle Frank [45:28]

Next one's a levered golden ratio. This one is 35% in a composite levered fund called NTSX that's the S&P 500 and treasury bonds. 20% in gold GLDM, 15% in AVDV, an international small cap value fund. 10% in KMLM it's a managed futures fund. 10% in TMF, which is a levered bond fund, and the remaining 10% divided into UDOW and UTSL, which are a levered Dow index fund and a levered utility index fund. It's up 0.22% month-to-date. It's up 10.39% year-to-date, still leading the pack and up 5.51% since inception, july 2021.

Mostly Uncle Frank [46:12]

You're younger than the other ones. For the month of August, we'll be distributing $35 out of the NTSX holding. It's at a 5% annualized rate, be $271 year-to-date and $1,827 since inception, july 2021. And the last one is our return stacked portfolio, our newest one. And the last one is our return-stacked portfolio our newest one, the Optra portfolio. It's 16% in UPRO, a levered S&P 500 fund, 24% in AVGV, which is a composite worldwide value fund. It's got 24% in GOVZ, which is a government strips fund, and the remaining 36% divided into gold and managed futures. It's down 0.58% for the month of August. So far, it's up 7.5% year-to-date and up 10.64% since inception in July 2024. For the month of August, we'll be distributing $52 from the Gold Fund, gldm. It's at a 6% annualized rate and it'll be $406 year-to-date and $666 since inception in July 2024.

Voices [47:24]

Woe to you, O earth and sea, for the devil sends the beast with wrath, because he knows the time is short. Let him who hath understanding reckon the number of the beast, for it is a human number. Its number is 666.

Mostly Uncle Frank [47:49]

And with that beastly number we conclude our weekly portfolio reviews and monthly distributions. But now I see our signal is beginning to fade. If you have comments or questions for me, please send them to frank at riskparityradarcom. That email is frank at riskparityradiocom. That email is frank at riskparityradiocom. Or you can go to the website, wwwriskparityradiocom. Put your message into the contact form and I'll get it that way. If you haven't had a chance to do it, please go to your favorite podcast provider and like subscribe. Give me some stars, a follow, a review. That would be great. Okay, thank you once again for tuning in.

Mostly Mary [48:43]

This is frank vasquez with risk party radio signing off. The Risk Parody Radio Show is hosted by Frank Vasquez. The content provided is for entertainment and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice. Please consult with your own advisors before taking any actions based on any information you have heard here, making sure to take into account your own personal circumstances.